US presidential elections come but once every 4 years, and this one's a big one. There are lots of people trying to predict what will happen. Can you top them?
Quick Facts
Participants
No. of Entries
Prize
Winner
Noriega-Santoyo-Castillo
1st Place TeamProblem description
- Competition
- Competition Timeline
- Data
- Submissions
- Submission Format 2016
- Submission Format 2020
Competition timeline
There are two phases for this competition. PHASE I runs like every other competition with a public test set and private training set (in this case, the results of the 2016 election). During PHASE I submit your predictions using submission-format-2016.csv and your score will appear on the leaderboard.
However, the final leaderboard is not determined by your 2016 predictions. It is determined in PHASE II by your submission for 2020, which you have marked as "Final Evaluation Submission" in the submissions dialog. You will need to use submission-format-2020.csv for this submission.
| Predict 2016 |
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| Predict 2020 |
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| Evaluate Predictions |
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| Submit 2016 Predictions | Submit 2020 Predictions | Election Day | Submissions Evaluated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Launch - 11/3/2020 | Launch - 11/3/2020 | 11/3/2016 | 11/3/2020 - Returns Finalized |
| Train your models on 2016 data and submit predictions for the leaderboard | Submit your predictions for 2020. You can make your submission at any point. | You must have your predictions submitted | We update the scores as election results come in. Scores will change until the vote counts are finalized. Final winner is determined based on 2020 election results. |
Data
We don't provide any one set of feature data that you must use. Instead, you can use any publicly available data to make your predictions. For some suggestions, check out the resources page!
The Metric
Submissions will be scored according to the root mean squared error metric, which will quantify how far from the true vote shares your regression predictions are. This metric is implemented in Scikit Learn, but you'll need to set the squared parameter to False. See the submissions page for more information.
Submission Format 2016
The goal is to predict the fraction of voters that each candidate gets in each state. Fractions should be represented as float values between 0 and 1. You can see an example of the format that your submission must conform to (including headers and row names) in submission-format-2016.csv.
Submission values
Again, you must submit vote fractions between 0 and 1 for each state.| Clinton | Trump | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| state_abbreviation | |||
| AK | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| AL | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| AR | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| AZ | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| CA | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
As a CSV, those submissions might look like:
state_abbreviation,Clinton,Trump,Other
AK,0.33,0.33,0.33
AL,0.33,0.33,0.33
AR,0.33,0.33,0.33
AZ,0.33,0.33,0.33
CA,0.33,0.33,0.33
CO,0.33,0.33,0.33
CT,0.33,0.33,0.33
DC,0.33,0.33,0.33
DE,0.33,0.33,0.33
Submission Format 2020
The goal is to predict the fractions of voters that each candidate gets in each state. Fractions should be represented as float values between 0 and 1. You can see an example of the format that your submission must conform to (including headers and row names) in submission-format-2020.csv.
Submission values
Again, you must submit vote fractions between 0 and 1 for each state.| Biden | Trump | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| state_abbreviation | |||
| AK | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| AL | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| AR | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| AZ | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| CA | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
As a CSV, those submissions might look like:
state_abbreviation,Biden,Trump,Other
AK,0.33,0.33,0.33
AL,0.33,0.33,0.33
AR,0.33,0.33,0.33
AZ,0.33,0.33,0.33
CA,0.33,0.33,0.33
CO,0.33,0.33,0.33
CT,0.33,0.33,0.33
DC,0.33,0.33,0.33
DE,0.33,0.33,0.33
Good luck!
If you want to get started, check out our benchmark blog post, which will walk through making predictions and submissions for 2016 and 2020.
Good luck and enjoy this problem! If you have any questions you can always visit the user forum!
America's Next Top (Statistical) Model - 2020: Rules and Terms of Data Use
DrivenData Competition Rules
GUIDELINES
One account per participant
You cannot sign up to DrivenData from multiple accounts and therefore you cannot submit from multiple accounts.
Private sharing of code
Privately sharing code or data outside of teams is not permitted.
Winner License Type: Open Source License
Winning solutions need to be made available under The MIT License (an open source software license commonly described at http://opensource.org/licenses/MIT) in order to be eligible for recognition and prize money if offered.
Documentation for winning solutions
Winning solutions must be documented using the Winning Model Documentation Template provided to top-ranking participants in order to be eligible for recognition and prize money if offered.
Submission limits
The number of submissions per day is restricted to a fixed value on a per-competition basis. Any attempt to circumvent this limit will result in disqualification.
External data
External data is permitted as long as it is freely and publicly available to all Participants under a permissive open source license. Participants agree to ensure any external data or pre-trained models they use are publicly shared in the competition discussion forum.
FULL RULES
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Entry submissions
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This Competition is a challenge of skill and the final results are determined by evaluating a combination of quantitative and qualitative factors, as more fully described on the Competition Website. For that portion of the Competition evaluated quantitatively, the results will be determined solely by leaderboard ranking on the private leaderboard based on an objective statistical evaluation metric published on the Competition Website prior to commencement of the Competition (subject to compliance with these Competition Rules). Participants' scores and ranks on the Competition Website at any given stage of the Competition will be based on the objective statistical evaluation metric described on the Competition Website, as determined by applying the predictions in the Submission to the ground truth of a validation dataset whose instances were a fixed set sampled from the Data. For that portion of the Competition evaluated qualitatively, the results will be determined by a panel of judges, as more fully described on the Competition Website. As more fully described on the Competition Website, the Competition may have a quantitative winner, a qualitative winner, a combined quantitative and qualitative winner, or all three.
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Data use and code sharing
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General release
By entering the Competition, you release and discharge the Competition Sponsor and DrivenData from any liability whatsoever in connection with the Competition or with the acceptance, possession, use or misuse of any prize including, without limitation, legal claims, costs, injuries, losses or damages, demands or actions of any kind (including, without limitation: personal injuries; death; damage to, loss or destruction of property; rights of publicity or privacy; and defamation or portrayal in a false light). The Competition Sponsor and DrivenData will not be responsible for typographical, printing or other inadvertent errors in these Competition Rules or in other materials relating to the Competition. Additionally, you hereby agree to indemnify the Competition Sponsor and DrivenData from any and all losses, damages, costs, expenses, rights, claims, demands and actions (including attorney's fees and expenses for litigation and settlement), which may be brought against any one or more of them by anyone claiming to have suffered loss or damage as a result of your participation in the Competition.
Limitations of liability
By participating in the Competition, each Participant agrees that: (1) any and all disputes, claims, and causes of action arising out of or in connection with the Competition, or any prize awarded, shall be resolved individually without resort to any form of class action; (2) any claims, judgments and awards shall be limited to actual out-of-pocket costs incurred, including costs associated with entering the Competition, but in no event attorney's fees; and (3) under no circumstances will a Participant be permitted to obtain any award for, and each Participant hereby waives all rights to claim, punitive, incidental or consequential damages and any and all rights to have damages multiplied or otherwise increased and any other damages, other than damages for actual out-of-pocket expenses.
DrivenData, Inc., Competition Sponsor, and the employees, officers, directors, shareholders, agents, representatives, affiliates, subsidiaries, and advertising, promotional and legal advisors thereof (collectively, the “Released Parties”) are not responsible and shall not be liable for: (i) late, lost, delayed, damaged, misdirected, incomplete, illegible, or unintelligible entries; (ii) telephone, electronic, hardware, or software program, network, Internet, or computer malfunctions, failures, or difficulties; (iii) errors in transmission; (iv) any condition caused by events beyond the control of the Released Parties that may cause the Competition to be disrupted or corrupted; (v) any injuries, losses, or damages of any kind caused by a prize or resulting from acceptance, possession, or use of a prize, or from participation in the Competition (however (but only if required by law in your jurisdiction), this release and hold harmless commitment does not apply to cases of bodily injury or loss of life to the extent that any death or personal injury is caused by the negligence of DrivenData, Competition Sponsor, or other third parties, where liability to the injured party cannot be excluded by law); or (vi) any printing or typographical errors in any materials associated with the Competition.
Disclaimer of Warranties
You understand that we cannot and do not guarantee or warrant that the Data or other files available for downloading from the internet or the Competition Website will be free of viruses or other destructive code. You are responsible for implementing sufficient procedures and checkpoints to satisfy your particular requirements for anti-virus protection and accuracy of data input and output, and for maintaining a means external to our site for any reconstruction of any lost data. RELEASED PARTIES WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE CAUSED BY A DISTRIBUTED DENIAL-OF-SERVICE ATTACK, VIRUSES OR OTHER TECHNOLOGICALLY HARMFUL MATERIAL THAT MAY INFECT YOUR COMPUTER EQUIPMENT, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, DATA OR OTHER PROPRIETARY MATERIAL DUE TO YOUR USE OF THE WEBSITE OR ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE OR TO YOUR DOWNLOADING OF ANY MATERIAL POSTED ON IT, OR ON ANY WEBSITE LINKED TO IT.
YOUR USE OF THE COMPETITION WEBSITE, ITS CONTENT AND ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE AND RECEIPT OF ANY PRIZES IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. THE WEBSITE, ITS CONTENT AND ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, BEYOND ANY NON-EXCLUDABLE GUARANTEES (DEFINED BELOW). NEITHER THE RELEASED PARTIES NOR ANY PERSON ASSOCIATED WITH RELEASED PARTIES MAKES ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE COMPLETENESS, SECURITY, RELIABILITY, QUALITY, ACCURACY OR AVAILABILITY OF THE COMPETITION WEBSITE. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, NEITHER RELEASED PARTIES NOR ANYONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RELEASED PARTIES REPRESENTS OR WARRANTS THAT THE COMPETITION WEBSITE, ITS CONTENT OR ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE WILL BE ACCURATE, RELIABLE, ERROR-FREE OR UNINTERRUPTED, THAT DEFECTS WILL BE CORRECTED, THAT OUR SITE OR THE SERVER THAT MAKES IT AVAILABLE ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS OR THAT THE COMPETITION WEBSITE OR ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE WILL OTHERWISE MEET YOUR NEEDS OR EXPECTATIONS.
NOTHING IN THESE COMPETITION RULES LIMITS, EXCLUDES, OR MODIFIES OR PURPORTS TO LIMIT, EXCLUDE, OR MODIFY ANY STATUTORY CONSUMER GUARANTEE OR ANY IMPLIED CONDITION OR WARRANTY, THE EXCLUSION OF WHICH FROM THESE COMPETITION RULES WOULD CONTRAVENE ANY STATUTE OR CAUSE ANY PART OF THESE TERMS TO BE VOID (“NON-EXCLUDABLE GUARANTEES”). SUBJECT TO THE LIMITATIONS IN THE PRECEDING SENTENCE AND TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY ANY MANDATORY PROVISIONS OF APPLICABLE LAW, THE RELEASED PARTIES HEREBY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, STATUTORY OR OTHERWISE, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT AND FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
THE FOREGOING DOES NOT AFFECT ANY WARRANTIES WHICH CANNOT BE EXCLUDED OR LIMITED UNDER APPLICABLE LAW.
Governing Law and Jurisdiction
DrivenData shall be the sole interpreter of these Competition Rules.
All matters relating to the Competition Rules or the Competition and any dispute or claim arising therefrom or related thereto (in each case, including non-contractual disputes or claims), shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts without giving effect to any choice or conflict of law provision or rule (whether of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts or any other jurisdiction).
Any legal suit, action or proceeding arising out of, or related to, the Competition or the Competition Website shall be instituted exclusively in the federal courts of the United States or the courts of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts although we retain the right to bring any suit, action or proceeding against you for breach of these Terms of Use in your country of residence or any other relevant country. You waive any and all objections to the exercise of jurisdiction over you by such courts and to venue in such courts.
The invalidity or unenforceability of any provision of these Competition Rules shall not affect the validity or enforceability of any other provision. In the event that any provision is determined to be invalid or otherwise unenforceable or illegal, these Competition Rules shall otherwise remain in effect and be construed in accordance with their terms as if the invalid or illegal provision was not contained herein.