DengAI: Predicting Disease Spread

Using environmental data collected by U.S. Federal Government agencies, can you predict the number of dengue fever cases reported each week in San Juan, Puerto Rico and Iquitos, Peru? #health

intermediate practice
1 year left
15,035 joined

Challenge Summary

Can you predict local epidemics of dengue fever?

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that occurs in tropical and sub-tropical parts of the world. In mild cases, symptoms are similar to the flu: fever, rash, and muscle and joint pain. In severe cases, dengue fever can cause severe bleeding, low blood pressure, and even death.

Because it is carried by mosquitoes, the transmission dynamics of dengue are related to climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. Although the relationship to climate is complex, a growing number of scientists argue that climate change is likely to produce distributional shifts that will have significant public health implications worldwide.

In recent years dengue fever has been spreading. Historically, the disease has been most prevalent in Southeast Asia and the Pacific islands. These days many of the nearly half billion cases per year are occurring in Latin America:

Using environmental data collected by various U.S. Federal Government agencies—from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the U.S. Department of Commerce—can you predict the number of dengue fever cases reported each week in San Juan, Puerto Rico and Iquitos, Peru?

This is an intermediate-level practice competition. Your task is to predict the number of dengue cases each week (in each location) based on environmental variables describing changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and more.

An understanding of the relationship between climate and dengue dynamics can improve research initiatives and resource allocation to help fight life-threatening pandemics.

Competition End Date:

Oct. 5, 2025, 7:38 p.m.

This competition is for learning and exploring, so the deadline may be extended in the future.

How to compete

  1. Click the "Join the competition" button on the sidebar to enroll in the competition.
  2. Get familiar with the problem on the Problem Description and About page.
  3. Download the data from the Data tab.
  4. Create and train your own model. The benchmark blog post is a great place to start!
  5. Use your model to generate predictions that match the submission format. Click “Submit” in the sidebar, and then “Make new submission”. You’re in!
  6. Bonus: share your work! Click the "+" icon on the Submissions page and add a link to your approach.

Mosquito image courtesy of flickr user sanofi-pasteur