Can you predict local epidemics of dengue fever?
Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne disease that occurs in tropical and sub-tropical parts of the world. In mild cases, symptoms are similar to the flu: fever, rash, and muscle and joint pain. In severe cases, dengue fever can cause severe bleeding, low blood pressure, and even death.
Because it is carried by mosquitoes, the transmission dynamics of dengue are related to climate variables such as temperature and precipitation. Although the relationship to climate is complex, a growing number of scientists argue that climate change is likely to produce distributional shifts that will have significant public health implications worldwide.
In recent years dengue fever has been spreading. Historically, the disease has been most prevalent in Southeast Asia and the Pacific islands. These days many of the nearly half billion cases per year are occurring in Latin America:
Using environmental data collected by various U.S. Federal Government agencies—from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration in the U.S. Department of Commerce—can you predict the number of dengue fever cases reported each week in San Juan, Puerto Rico and Iquitos, Peru?
This is an intermediate-level practice competition. Your task is to predict the number of dengue cases each week (in each location) based on environmental variables describing changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and more.
An understanding of the relationship between climate and dengue dynamics can improve research initiatives and resource allocation to help fight life-threatening pandemics.
Competition End Date:
Dec. 22, 2017, 7:38 p.m.
|This competition is for learning and exploring, so the deadline may be extended in the future.|
Mosquito image courtesy of flickr user sanofi-pasteur
DengAI: Predicting Disease Spread: Rules and Terms of Data Use
DrivenData Competition Rules
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Private sharing of code
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Public dissemination of entries
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Open licensing of winners
Winning solutions need to be made available under The MIT License (an open source software license commonly described at http://opensource.org/licenses/MIT) in order to be eligible for recognition and prize money if offered.
Documentation for winning solutions
Winning solutions must be documented using the provided Winning Model Documentation Template in order to be eligible for recognition and prize money if offered.
The number of submissions per day is restricted to a fixed value on a per-competition basis. Any attempt to circumvent this limit will result in disqualification.
External data is not allowed unless otherwise noted explicitly on these competition pages. Participants agree to make no attempt to use additional data or data sources not provided on these competition pages.
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Selection of winners
This Competition is a challenge of skill and the final results are determined solely by leaderboard ranking on the private leaderboard (subject to compliance with these Competition Rules). Participants' scores and ranks on the Competition Website at any given stage of the Competition will be based on the evaluation metric described on the Competition Website, as determined by applying the predictions in the Submission to the ground truth of a validation dataset whose instances were a fixed set sampled from the Data.
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Data use and code sharing
DATA. "Data" means the Data or Datasets linked from the Competition Website for the purpose of use by Participants in the Competition. For the avoidance of doubt, Data is deemed for the purpose of these Competition Rules to include any prototype or executable code provided to Participants by DrivenData or Competition Sponsor via the Website. Participants must use the Data only as permitted by these Competition Rules and any associated data use rules specified on the Competition Website.
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