Snowcast Showdown: Evaluation Stage

SUBMIT HERE FOR 2022 PREDICTIONS AND PRIZES! Seasonal snowpack is a critical water resource throughout the Western U.S. Help the Bureau of Reclamation estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) at a high spatiotemporal resolution using near real-time data sources. #climate

$500,000 in prizes
Completed jul 2022
334 joined

The goal of this challenge was to estimate snow water equivalent (SWE) at a high spatiotemporal resolution over the Western U.S. using near real-time data sources. The final leaderboard from the evaluation stage can be viewed here.

Modeling report winners

In addition to obtaining the best possible predictions of SWE, the Bureau of Reclamation was interested in gaining a deeper understanding of modeling approaches in two primary areas:

  • Interpretability is the degree to which a person can understand the outcome of the solution methodology given its inputs. For example, a solution that relies on physically-based modeling should outline a set of well-defined model governing equations.

  • Robustness is the extent to which solutions provide high performance over a broad range of conditions, such as different elevations, topographies, land cover, weather, and/or climates. Robustness may be evaluated by comparing solution performance over different regions or time periods (based on historical data).

Congratulations to the winners of the modeling report competition!

Rank User Prize Amount
1st oshbocker $30,000
2nd UltimateHydrology $20,000
3rd TeamUArizona $10,000

Regional prize winners

Regional prizes are awarded for regional performance in the Sierras and Central Rockies. Submissions were evaluated against regional grid cells in the real-time evaluation period. Final rankings were determined by the scoring metric, RMSE.

Sierras

Rank User Prize Amount
1st leigh.plt $30,000
2nd FBykov $20,000
3rd UltimateHydrology $10,000

Central Rockies

Rank User Prize Amount
1st UltimateHydrology $30,000
2nd oshbocker $20,000
3rd leigh.plt $10,000

All scores

The full regional leaderboard is below.

Sierras Rockies Overall
FBykov 3.7830 4.4683 3.8784
UltimateHydrology 3.7893 3.9113 3.9746
TeamUArizona 3.8896 4.6529 3.9900
leigh.plt 3.7750 3.9585 4.0892
oshbocker 4.2719 3.9287 4.1828
ua-ck 4.0974 4.1953 4.2317
rasyidstat 4.2557 4.1002 4.2741
Nimcha 4.2089 4.2266 4.2923
chris62 4.2857 4.2169 4.3116
ironbar 4.7313 5.0096 4.6532
saket 4.6982 4.5779 4.6555
separate 4.7577 4.9402 4.7378
Daniel_FG 5.4514 4.1033 5.2911
shprco-eval 5.3401 5.2888 5.6459
aidanbelton 5.6104 6.8982 5.7022
ndmelentev 5.9890 5.6366 6.0231
Galeros93 6.6420 4.0824 6.2184
jimking100 5.6185 6.7159 6.4153
NxGTR 6.5061 5.9358 6.5073
s-abramov 7.6562 5.0016 7.1696
belinda_trotta 6.1320 7.5654 7.3637
smokey 7.5555 7.4170 7.4908
TobTob 7.0566 9.7843 8.2838
Shadow43 7.0492 9.6939 8.3301
shoji 7.0564 9.7847 8.3464
Jagannath8 7.0564 9.7847 8.3464
Johnny.Research 7.0564 9.7847 8.3464
andrey1362010 8.7025 8.1029 8.4240
dmitry_v 9.4806 6.7681 8.9936
snowverfitting-eval 8.5879 8.4692 9.0233
mass_1 10.4596 7.4877 10.2768
DenisVorotyntsev 12.2282 6.3293 11.2281
TheCabinFund 11.7541 8.1544 11.2770
timothee.henry 13.6150 8.2028 12.7265
SnowSource-eval 12.3892 12.3753 12.7488
Wasatch_Snow 16.6772 9.6681 15.9211
sgascoin 456.7662 725.6566 524.7947