Help NOAA better forecast changes in Earth’s magnetic field! Improved models can provide more advanced warning of geomagnetic storms and reduce errors in magnetic navigation systems.
About the project
A cartoon of the Earth's magnetosphere. The Dst or disturbance-storm-time index is a measure of the “ring current” (blue) around the Earth. The ring current is an electric current carried by charged particles trapped in the magnetosphere.
The efficient transfer of energy from solar-wind into the Earth’s magnetic field causes geomagnetic storms. The resulting ground magnetic field variations increase the errors of systems that use Earth’s natural magnetic field as a pointing reference.
The Dst or disturbance-storm-time index is a measure of the severity of the geomagnetic storm. More specifically, the negative deflection of the Earth's magnetic field due to the ring current (see the above figure) is measured by the Dst index. As a key specification of the magnetospheric dynamics, the Dst index is used to drive geomagnetic disturbance models such as NOAA/NCEI’s High Definition Geomagnetic Model - Real Time (HDGM-RT). Additionally, magnetic surveyors, government agencies, academic institutions, satellite operators, and power grid operators use the Dst index to analyze the strength and duration of geomagnetic storms.
The Dst is calculated as an average deflection of the horizontal component of the magnetic field observed at four near-equatorial ground observatories. The more intense the geomagnetic storm is, the more negative the Dst value becomes. However, the observatory-based Dst values are not very useful for the real-time magnetic modeling due to latency, instrument outages and connectivity issues. Over the past four decades, several models were proposed for solar-wind forecasting of Dst. Here, instead of relying on ground measurements, models predict the Dst values solely based on solar-wind measurements by satellites such as NOAA’s Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) or NASA's Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE), situated approximately 1.6 million kilometers away from Earth along the Sun-Earth line. Since radio communication is faster than the solar wind, the satellite measurements at L1 provide 15-30 minutes of lead-time before the storm arrives on Earth.
The NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), in partnership with the University of Colorado’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) is conducting an open data-science challenge to forecast Dst using the real-time solar-wind (RTSW) data in an operationally viable setup. Recent advances in machine learning research hold immediate promise for improving Dst forecasting even without formal training in space physics. The right challenge in this context can identify solutions that are both operationally viable and highly accurate.
About NOAA NCEI / CIRES
NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) hosts and provides public access to one of the most significant archives for environmental data on Earth. NCEI contributes to the NESDIS mission by developing new products and services that span the science disciplines and enable better data discovery.
At the Cooperative Institute for Research In Environmental Sciences (CIRES), more than 800 environmental scientists work to understand the dynamic Earth system, including people’s relationship with the planet. CIRES is a partnership of NOAA and the University of Colorado Boulder, and its areas of expertise include weather and climate, changes at Earth’s poles, air quality and atmospheric chemistry, water resources, and solid Earth sciences. The vision at CIRES is to be instrumental in ensuring a sustainable future environment by advancing scientific and societal understanding of the Earth system.
MagNet: Model the Geomagnetic Field: Rules and Terms of Data Use
DrivenData Competition Rules
One account per participant
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Private sharing of code
Privately sharing code or data outside of teams is not permitted.
Winner License Type: Open Source License
Winning solutions need to be made available under The MIT License (an open source software license commonly described at http://opensource.org/licenses/MIT) in order to be eligible for recognition and prize money if offered.
Documentation for winning solutions
Winning solutions must be documented using the Winning Model Documentation Template provided to top-ranking participants in order to be eligible for recognition and prize money if offered.
The number of submissions per day is restricted to a fixed value on a per-competition basis. Any attempt to circumvent this limit will result in disqualification.
External data is not allowed unless otherwise noted explicitly on these competition pages. Participants agree to make no attempt to use additional data or data sources not provided on these competition pages.
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Selection of winners
This Competition is a challenge of skill and the final results are determined by evaluating a combination of quantitative and qualitative factors, as more fully described on the Competition Website. For that portion of the Competition evaluated quantitatively, the results will be determined solely by leaderboard ranking on the private leaderboard based on an objective statistical evaluation metric published on the Competition Website prior to commencement of the Competition (subject to compliance with these Competition Rules). Participants' scores and ranks on the Competition Website at any given stage of the Competition will be based on the objective statistical evaluation metric described on the Competition Website, as determined by applying the predictions in the Submission to the ground truth of a validation dataset whose instances were a fixed set sampled from the Data. Scores displayed on the public leaderboard while the competition is running may or may not be the same as the final scores on the private leaderboard, depending on how samples from the Data are used for evaluation. For that portion of the Competition evaluated qualitatively, the results will be determined by a panel of judges, as more fully described on the Competition Website. As more fully described on the Competition Website, the Competition may have a quantitative winner, a qualitative winner, a combined quantitative and qualitative winner, or all three.
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- disqualify your Submission(s); or
- require that you remediate within one week any issues identified in your Submission(s) (including, without limitation, the resolution of license conflicts and confirmation of the fulfillment of all obligations required by software licenses). DrivenData is under no obligation to alert you of any issues with your Submission or permit you to remediate any identified issues.
A tie between two or more valid and identically ranked submissions will be resolved in favor of the tied submission that was submitted first.
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Prizes and conditions
If the Competition has a prize, the Prize Winner(s) will be notified within 10 days of the end of the Competition on the Competition Website. The Prize Winner(s) will receive their prizes awarded as a check or electronic transfer from DrivenData.
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As a condition of receipt of a prize, winner must deliver their solution’s code and documentation to DrivenData. The source code must contain a description of resources required to build and run the solution, and should be able to sufficiently reproduce winning results and generate predictions on new data samples with and without retraining. The accompanying documentation should be consistent with DrivenData’s Winning Model Documentation Template, which will be provided to winners after the competition.
The prize may be awarded to an alternate winner if required documentation is not returned within fifteen (15) days after mailing to winner, if prize notification letter/email or prize is returned as undeliverable, if winner does not respond to an email or other communication from DrivenData within seven (7) days of the date sent, or if the winner, in DrivenData’s judgment, does not respond to reasonable requests for information related to prize delivery or is otherwise unable or unwilling to coordinate prize delivery within fifteen (15) days after prize notification. Allow thirty (30) days for prize delivery. By accepting any prize/award, Winner agrees to allow DrivenData and/or the Competition Sponsor to disclose Winner’s first name, first initial of last name, and city of residence, as well as prize information to the extent required by law, and if so required by law, Winner agrees to the disclosure of additional personal information, all without additional compensation.
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As a further condition of receipt of a Prize, each winning Participant thereby licenses their winning Submission and the source code used to generate the Submission according to the Winner License/Assignment Type specified above (note: if no Winner License/Assignment Type is specified above, the Winner License/Assignment Type is deemed to be Non-Exclusive License).
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- represents that he/she/it has the unrestricted right to grant that license.
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- licenses their winning Submission and the source code used to generate the Submission under the MIT License (an open source software license commonly described at http://opensource.org/licenses/MIT); and
- represents that he/she/it has the unrestricted right to grant that license.
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Data use and code sharing
DATA. "Data" means the data or datasets linked from the Competition Website for the purpose of use by Participants in the Competition. For the avoidance of doubt, Data is deemed for the purpose of these Competition Rules to include any prototype or executable code provided to Participants by DrivenData or via the Competition Website. Participants must use the Data only as permitted by these Competition Rules and any associated data use rules specified on the Competition Website.
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OPEN-SOURCE CODE. A Submission will be ineligible to win a prize if it was developed using code containing or depending on software licensed under an open source license:
- other than an Open Source Initiative-approved license (see http://opensource.org/licenses); or
- an open source license that prohibits commercial use.
Participant warranties and obligations
By registering, you agree that (a) your Account is complete, correct and accurate and (b) your registration may be rejected or terminated and all Entries submitted by you and/or your Team may be disqualified if any of the information in your Account is (or Competition Sponsor of DrivenData has reasonable grounds to believe it is) incomplete, incorrect or inaccurate. You are solely responsible for your Account. All registration information is deemed collected in the United States.
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Reservation of rights
DrivenData, in its sole discretion, reserves the right to disqualify any person tampering with the entry process, the operation of the Web site, the competition process, or is otherwise in violation of the Competition Rules. DrivenData reserves the right at any time to disqualify a Submission from a Competition where, acting in good faith, it believes there are reasonable grounds to warrant disqualification. For example, DrivenData’s determination that the Submission does not provide the functionality described or required, or the Submission appears to be purposely designed to circumvent these Competition Rules or the spirit of the Competition would be grounds for disqualification. DrivenData reserves the right to cancel, terminate or modify the Competition if it is not capable of completion as planned for any reason, including infection by computer virus, bugs, tampering, unauthorized intervention or technical failures of any sort. If DrivenData determines (at any time and in their sole discretion) that any Participant is engaging in behavior that DrivenData deems obnoxious, inappropriate, threatening, illegal or that is intended to annoy, abuse, or harass any other person or entity, DrivenData reserves the right to disqualify such Participant (and Participant’s Team, if applicable).
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Limitations of liability
By participating in the Competition, each Participant agrees that: (1) any and all disputes, claims, and causes of action arising out of or in connection with the Competition, or any prize awarded, shall be resolved individually without resort to any form of class action; (2) any claims, judgments and awards shall be limited to actual out-of-pocket costs incurred, including costs associated with entering the Competition, but in no event attorney's fees; and (3) under no circumstances will a Participant be permitted to obtain any award for, and each Participant hereby waives all rights to claim, punitive, incidental or consequential damages and any and all rights to have damages multiplied or otherwise increased and any other damages, other than damages for actual out-of-pocket expenses.
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Disclaimer of Warranties
You understand that we cannot and do not guarantee or warrant that the Data or other files available for downloading from the internet or the Competition Website will be free of viruses or other destructive code. You are responsible for implementing sufficient procedures and checkpoints to satisfy your particular requirements for anti-virus protection and accuracy of data input and output, and for maintaining a means external to our site for any reconstruction of any lost data. RELEASED PARTIES WILL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY LOSS OR DAMAGE CAUSED BY A DISTRIBUTED DENIAL-OF-SERVICE ATTACK, VIRUSES OR OTHER TECHNOLOGICALLY HARMFUL MATERIAL THAT MAY INFECT YOUR COMPUTER EQUIPMENT, COMPUTER PROGRAMS, DATA OR OTHER PROPRIETARY MATERIAL DUE TO YOUR USE OF THE WEBSITE OR ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE OR TO YOUR DOWNLOADING OF ANY MATERIAL POSTED ON IT, OR ON ANY WEBSITE LINKED TO IT.
YOUR USE OF THE COMPETITION WEBSITE, ITS CONTENT AND ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE AND RECEIPT OF ANY PRIZES IS AT YOUR OWN RISK. THE WEBSITE, ITS CONTENT AND ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE ARE PROVIDED ON AN “AS IS” AND “AS AVAILABLE” BASIS, WITHOUT ANY WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EITHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, BEYOND ANY NON-EXCLUDABLE GUARANTEES (DEFINED BELOW). NEITHER THE RELEASED PARTIES NOR ANY PERSON ASSOCIATED WITH RELEASED PARTIES MAKES ANY WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION WITH RESPECT TO THE COMPLETENESS, SECURITY, RELIABILITY, QUALITY, ACCURACY OR AVAILABILITY OF THE COMPETITION WEBSITE. WITHOUT LIMITING THE FOREGOING, NEITHER RELEASED PARTIES NOR ANYONE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RELEASED PARTIES REPRESENTS OR WARRANTS THAT THE COMPETITION WEBSITE, ITS CONTENT OR ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE WILL BE ACCURATE, RELIABLE, ERROR-FREE OR UNINTERRUPTED, THAT DEFECTS WILL BE CORRECTED, THAT OUR SITE OR THE SERVER THAT MAKES IT AVAILABLE ARE FREE OF VIRUSES OR OTHER HARMFUL COMPONENTS OR THAT THE COMPETITION WEBSITE OR ANY SERVICES OR ITEMS OBTAINED THROUGH THE WEBSITE WILL OTHERWISE MEET YOUR NEEDS OR EXPECTATIONS.
NOTHING IN THESE COMPETITION RULES LIMITS, EXCLUDES, OR MODIFIES OR PURPORTS TO LIMIT, EXCLUDE, OR MODIFY ANY STATUTORY CONSUMER GUARANTEE OR ANY IMPLIED CONDITION OR WARRANTY, THE EXCLUSION OF WHICH FROM THESE COMPETITION RULES WOULD CONTRAVENE ANY STATUTE OR CAUSE ANY PART OF THESE TERMS TO BE VOID (“NON-EXCLUDABLE GUARANTEES”). SUBJECT TO THE LIMITATIONS IN THE PRECEDING SENTENCE AND TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY ANY MANDATORY PROVISIONS OF APPLICABLE LAW, THE RELEASED PARTIES HEREBY DISCLAIM ALL WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, WHETHER EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, STATUTORY OR OTHERWISE, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO ANY WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY, NON-INFRINGEMENT AND FITNESS FOR PARTICULAR PURPOSE.
THE FOREGOING DOES NOT AFFECT ANY WARRANTIES WHICH CANNOT BE EXCLUDED OR LIMITED UNDER APPLICABLE LAW.
Governing Law and Jurisdiction
DrivenData shall be the sole interpreter of these Competition Rules.
All matters relating to the Competition Rules or the Competition and any dispute or claim arising therefrom or related thereto (in each case, including non-contractual disputes or claims), shall be governed by and construed in accordance with the internal laws of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts without giving effect to any choice or conflict of law provision or rule (whether of the Commonwealth of Massachusetts or any other jurisdiction).
The invalidity or unenforceability of any provision of these Competition Rules shall not affect the validity or enforceability of any other provision. In the event that any provision is determined to be invalid or otherwise unenforceable or illegal, these Competition Rules shall otherwise remain in effect and be construed in accordance with their terms as if the invalid or illegal provision was not contained herein.