Water Supply Forecast Rodeo: Final Prize Stage

Water managers in the Western U.S. rely on accurate water supply forecasts to better operate facilities and mitigate drought. Help the Bureau of Reclamation improve seasonal water supply estimates in this probabilistic forecasting challenge! [Final Prize Stage] #climate

$400,000 in prizes
Completed jul 2024
34 joined

The goal of this challenge make probabilistic forecasts of naturalized cumulative streamflow volume over specified seasonal periods for 26 sites in the Western U.S.

Overall Prizes

A judging panel of hydrologists and machine learning practitioners from the Bureau of Reclamation, the Natural Resources Conservation Service, NOAA's River Forecast Centers, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers selected winners based on the following evaluation criteria:

  • Forecast Skill (Cross-validation) (30%)
  • Forecast Skill (Forecast Stage) (10%)
  • Rigor (20%)
  • Innovation (10%)
  • Generalizability (10%)
  • Efficiency & Scalability (10%)
  • Clarity (10%)

For more details about the evaluation criteria, see the Problem Description page.

Congratulations to the five winners of the Overall Prizes of the challenge!

Rank Team Prize Amount
1st oshbocker $100,000
2nd ck-ua $75,000
3rd rasyidstat $50,000
4th kurisu $30,000
5th progin $20,000

The cross-validation quantile loss score leaderboard can be viewed here.

Subcategory Bonus Prizes

In addition to the Overall Prizes, winners were also selected for five Subcategory Bonus Prizes. The Bonus Prize categories were:

  • Regional Bonus Prize: Cascades—Sites located in the Cascades mountain range in the Pacific Northwest.
  • Regional Bonus Prize: Sierra Nevada—Sites located in the Sierra Nevada mountain range in California.
  • Regional Bonus Prize: Colorado Headwaters—Sites in smaller high-elevation sites in the Rocky Mountains range in Colorado.
  • Challenging Basins Bonus Prize—Sites in basins with relatively low water supply volume relative to basin area, relatively high variability in water supply volume, and relatively lower influence of snowmelt on water supply.
  • Early Lead Time Bonus Prize—Issue dates from January 1 through March 15.

Bonus Prize winners were selected based on a combination of cross-validation forecast skill (70%) and rigor of their modeling methodology (30%). For more details about the Bonus Prizes, see the Problem Description page.

Congratulations to the Bonus Prize winners!

Prize Team Prize Amount
Regional: Cascades rasyidstat $10,000
Regional: Sierra Nevada rasyidstat $10,000
Regional: Colorado Headwaters rasyidstat $10,000
Challenging Basins oshbocker $10,000
Early Lead Time rasyidstat $10,000

Explainability and Communication Bonus Track

In this bonus track, teams submitted sample forecast summaries representative of the kinds of publications issued by real forecast agencies. A judging panel of hydrologists, water resource managers, and communications experts from the Bureau of Reclamation evaluated submissions based on the following criteria:

  • Usefulness (40%)
  • Clarity (20%)
  • Rigor (20%)
  • Innovation (20%)

For more details about the submission requirements and evaluation criteria, see the bonus track page.

Congratulations to the five winners of the Explainability and Communication Bonus Track prizes!

Rank Team Prize Amount
1st kurisu $25,000
2nd kamarain $20,000
3rd rasyidstat $15,000
4th oshbocker $10,000
5th iamo-team $5,000